Are Software Engineers in the U.S. Completely F*cked? AI, Offshoring, and Market Reality
US junior engineer market faces 3x competition from AI, global talent, and CS grad flood. 5 strategies to survive: Be top 10%, relocate to LCOL, leverage Western privilege.
The US software engineering market is officially f*cked.
Or is it?
For sure, in the past couple of years, it has become orders of magnitude more competitive:
- Big tech companies have plateaued their growth
- AI has reduced the need for human engineers to build and ship software
- Millions of skilled engineers have been trained in countries with 2-3x lower costs than the US
- Nearly half of college graduates born between 1995-2003 studied CS or attended coding bootcamps, flooding the market with junior engineers
Now, junior engineers in the US are competing:
- Among themselves
- Against AI
- Against skilled devs from Poland, India, and beyond—for a stagnant number of jobs
Browse current job opportunities →
The Perfect Storm: Four Converging Trends
1. Big Tech Growth Has Plateaued
The golden era (2010-2021) saw explosive growth:
| Period | Trend | Impact on Hiring |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-2015 | Mobile revolution | Massive hiring surge |
| 2016-2021 | Cloud, AI investment | Continued aggressive hiring |
| 2022-2023 | Mass layoffs | 300,000+ tech jobs cut |
| 2024-2025 | Cautious growth | Selective hiring, higher bar |
Reality check: Companies that hired aggressively (Meta, Google, Amazon) are now running leaner. The "growth at all costs" era is over.
2. AI Is Reducing Engineering Demand
What AI can already do:
- Generate boilerplate code (GitHub Copilot, ChatGPT)
- Debug common errors
- Write documentation
- Create basic features from specifications
- Automate testing
Impact on junior roles:
| Task | Pre-AI Time | With AI | Reduction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simple features | 8 hours | 2-3 hours | 63-75% |
| Bug fixes | 4 hours | 1 hour | 75% |
| Documentation | 6 hours | 1 hour | 83% |
| Basic testing | 10 hours | 2 hours | 80% |
What this means: One mid-level engineer with AI can do what 2-3 junior engineers did before.
Companies are hiring fewer juniors and expecting higher productivity from mid-levels.
3. Global Competition Has Intensified
Skilled developers worldwide:
| Region | Average Senior Dev Cost | Quality Level |
|---|---|---|
| US (on-site) | $180-250k | High |
| Poland | $60-100k | High |
| India | $40-80k | Medium-High |
| Latin America | $50-90k | Medium-High |
Companies are realizing: Why pay $200k for a US junior when you can hire a senior from Poland or India for $80k remotely?
See our analysis: End of USA golden era for software engineers
4. Massive Oversupply of Junior Engineers
The CS graduate flood:
- 1995-2003 birth cohort: ~45% of college grads studied CS or attended bootcamps
- Annual US CS graduates: ~65,000 (2015) → ~125,000+ (2024)
- Bootcamp graduates: ~30,000+/year
- Total market entrants: ~150,000+/year
- Entry-level openings: ~40,000-60,000/year
The math is brutal: 2.5-3 candidates for every entry-level position.
But You're Not Completely F*cked: 5 Survival Strategies
Strategy 1: Be Among the Best of the Best
If you want a high-paying entry-level job, brace yourself to be among the top 10%.
What "best of the best" means:
| Skill Area | Minimum Bar | Competitive Bar |
|---|---|---|
| LeetCode | Solve mediums (60% success) | Solve hards consistently |
| Projects | 2-3 personal projects | OSS contributions, production apps |
| Education | CS degree | Top school (MIT, Stanford, Berkeley) |
| Internships | 1 tech internship | Big tech internship |
| Networking | LinkedIn presence | Active referrals at target companies |
Reality: Only 10-15% of entry-level applicants get big tech offers. You need to be in that group.
See: Breaking into big tech in Europe with lower competition
Strategy 2: Accept Lower Pay, Optimize for Location
The geo-arbitrage play for US juniors:
If you're patient, gain experience in lower/mid-paid US jobs while living in a low-tax, low-cost location.
Example scenarios:
| Location Strategy | Salary | Living Costs | Savings | Lifestyle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF Bay Area | $120k | $65k | $35k | Struggle |
| Austin, TX | $95k | $38k | $45k | Comfortable |
| Miami, FL | $85k | $35k | $40k | Beach life |
| Remote from Boise, ID | $90k | $28k | $50k | Great value |
Strategy: Take a $85-95k job remotely from a LCOL city, save aggressively for 2-3 years, then jump to higher-paying role with experience.
Strategy 3: Leverage Your Western Privilege
Do things engineers from emerging markets can't easily do:
A. Create Content for Western Audiences
Why this works:
- Native English speaker advantage
- Understanding of Western culture/humor/references
- Access to Western market insights
- Better networking with US companies
Opportunities:
- YouTube tech tutorials
- Technical blog/newsletter
- Twitter/LinkedIn thought leadership
- Podcast hosting
Monetization timeline:
| Milestone | Typical Timeline | Potential Income |
|---|---|---|
| First 1,000 followers | 3-6 months | $0-500/month |
| 5,000 followers | 8-12 months | $1,000-3,000/month |
| 20,000+ followers | 18-24 months | $5,000-15,000/month |
See: LinkedIn career hack for networking
B. Help Old US Business Owners Modernize
The opportunity:
- 10+ million small US businesses with outdated tech
- Owners are 55-75 years old, not tech-savvy
- Need websites, automation, e-commerce, CRM systems
- Willing to pay $50-150/hour for local, English-speaking help
Your advantage as US-based engineer:
- Can meet in person (trust factor)
- Speak their language and culture
- Understand US business practices
- Access to US payment systems
Income potential: $60-120k/year part-time while building experience.
Strategy 4: Network Like a Pro
Apply with referrals whenever possible. The data is clear:
| Application Method | Success Rate | Average Time to Response |
|---|---|---|
| Cold apply | 1-3% | 2-4 weeks (or never) |
| Recruiter reach-out | 8-12% | 1-2 weeks |
| Employee referral | 15-30% | 3-7 days |
How to build your network:
LinkedIn (1 hour/week):
- Connect with engineers at target companies
- Comment thoughtfully on posts
- Share your learning journey
- Ask for informational interviews
Blind (30 mins/day):
- Participate in company-specific threads
- Answer technical questions
- Build reputation
- DM for referrals when appropriate
LeetCode (during practice):
- Join company-specific contests
- Engage in discussions
- Connect with participants
- Form study groups
Reddit (20 mins/day):
- r/cscareerquestions
- r/ExperiencedDevs
- Company-specific subreddits
- Build karma by helping others
Meetups (2x/month):
- Local tech events
- Company-sponsored events
- Hackathons
- User groups (React, Python, etc.)
Even family gatherings: You'd be surprised how many connections come from "my cousin's friend works at Google."
Strategy 5: Create Content to Grow Your Network
Share what you're learning in your professional journey.
Why this works:
- Demonstrates expertise (even as junior)
- Builds public portfolio (shows you can communicate)
- Attracts opportunities (people reach out to you)
- Compounds over time (content keeps working)
Simple content strategy:
| Frequency | Content Type | Time Investment | Platform |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | Learning thread/post | 30-45 mins | Twitter/LinkedIn |
| Bi-weekly | Technical deep-dive | 2-3 hours | Blog/Medium |
| Monthly | Project showcase | 1-2 hours | GitHub + LinkedIn |
Post weekly or bi-weekly—keep it simple and consistent.
Example topics:
- "Solved my first LeetCode hard, here's what I learned"
- "Built a feature at work using [tech], here's the approach"
- "5 debugging techniques that saved me hours this week"
- "Interview prep week 6: System design progress"
If You're a Junior Dev from the US...
Yes, the market is tough.
But:
- You've received an education
- You live in a developed country
- You have opportunities to pivot and adapt
It's not the end of the world—just a new game with new rules.
The devs who will succeed are those who:
- Adapt faster (learn AI tools, leverage them)
- Work smarter (network, referrals, content)
- Optimize location (remote from LCOL)
- Build leverage (content, personal brand, unique value)
What If You're in Europe, Asia, or LATAM?
If You're in Europe
Things are more stable—depending on where you're based.
Rule of thumb: The cheaper the country, the better it is for people in IT.
| Country Type | Market Condition | Best Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| Western Europe (UK, Germany, France) | Stable but expensive | Target high-paying roles or consider moving east |
| Central/Eastern Europe (Poland, Czech Republic) | Excellent | Stay put or attract remote Western salaries |
| Southern Europe (Spain, Portugal) | Growing but lower salaries | Remote work + digital nomad visa |
Europe's advantage: The market is more stable. Junior devs aren't struggling like in the US.
Check out: Working from Europe for a US company is the ultimate career hack
And: Is Europe better than the U.S. for Software Engineers?
If You're in an Emerging Market (Asia, LATAM, Central/Eastern Europe)
AI is your main competition.
But you can turn it into your advantage:
Strategy 1: Use AI to Learn Faster
- Accelerate your learning curve
- Close knowledge gaps quickly
- Practice with AI pair programming
- Stay ahead of local competition
Strategy 2: Leverage AI to Work Smarter
- Deliver better results in less time
- Take on more complex projects
- Increase your value proposition
- Command higher rates
Strategy 3: Explore Freelancing or Consulting
- Build software for Western clients
- Charge in USD/EUR while living in LCOL country
- Geographic arbitrage advantage
- Build portfolio and reputation
Strategy 4: Create Micro-SaaS Side Hustles
- Use AI to build faster
- Target niche problems
- Monetize globally
- Build passive income streams
The Changing Dynamics: US vs. Europe
The US used to have a clear edge over Europe for devs.
In some ways, it still does:
- More high-paying jobs ($200k+ roles)
- Larger tech ecosystem
- More startup opportunities
- Higher earning ceiling
But the gap is tightening:
| Factor | 2015 | 2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| US entry-level | Easy to find job | Brutal competition | ⬇️ Much worse |
| Europe entry-level | Moderate difficulty | Moderate difficulty | ➡️ Stable |
| US senior | Excellent | Still good | ⬇️ Slightly worse |
| Europe senior | Limited opportunities | Growing opportunities | ⬆️ Much better |
| Remote opportunities | Rare | Common | ⬆️ Much better both regions |
Junior devs in the US are struggling like never before.
Meanwhile, Europe, Asia, and LATAM are seeing steady growth in tech opportunities.
Related Resources
- Working from Europe for US company: Ultimate career hack
- Is Europe better than the U.S. for Software Engineers in 2024?
- Poland: Europe's top place for software engineers
- Best countries for tech workers in Europe
- Breaking into big tech in Europe with lower competition
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the US software engineering market actually worse now than Europe for junior developers?
For juniors specifically: yes, significantly worse. The numbers tell the story: US entry-level roles receive 200-400 applications per posting (2024) vs 50-80 in 2019, while European cities like Berlin, Warsaw, and Dublin see 80-150 applications per posting—still competitive but not the bloodbath the US has become. Why the difference? The US had a larger CS graduate explosion (125k+ graduates annually vs 40k in 2019), more aggressive bootcamp marketing creating unrealistic expectations, and more dramatic big tech layoffs (Google, Meta, Amazon cut 100,000+ combined). Europe's growth has been steadier with less overhiring to correct. Quality of opportunities also differs: US juniors compete for $90-130k roles with intense LeetCode bars, while European juniors find €45-70k roles with more reasonable interview processes. The psychological impact is brutal: r/cscareerquestions is filled with US juniors with 300+ applications and zero offers, while r/cscareerquestionsEU shows more measured concern. If you're a US junior, seriously consider: (1) targeting European opportunities (visa permitting), (2) remote work from LCOL US cities, or (3) pivoting to content creation while building experience. The European market is genuinely more accessible right now for early-career developers.
How can I leverage "Western privilege" as an engineer without being offensive or exploitative?
Great question that shows cultural awareness. The privilege isn't about being superior—it's about honest competitive advantages you should utilize ethically. What "Western privilege" means in this context: Native English fluency (most global tech business happens in English), cultural fluency with Western business practices (meeting etiquette, communication styles, expectations), legal and payment infrastructure access (easier to work with US/EU companies, banks, payment processors), physical proximity for in-person meetings when needed (trust-building advantage with local businesses). How to leverage ethically: Create genuine value (help US businesses modernize—they desperately need it), charge fair rates (not exploitation, but not selling yourself short either), acknowledge your advantages (don't pretend it's purely merit), use your position to help others (create content, share knowledge, mentor developers from emerging markets). What NOT to do: Don't assume you're better at engineering (you're not—talent is global), don't exploit cost differences to underprice developing-market devs (this hurts everyone), don't make it about superiority (it's about circumstantial advantages). Bottom line: You were born in a developed country—that's luck, not achievement. Use that luck to create value, but stay humble and help others rise. The content creation advantage (native English, Western cultural references) is real and ethical to leverage—you're simply serving an audience you naturally understand better.
If AI can do 70%+ of junior engineering work, why should I still pursue software engineering in 2025?
Because AI is a tool, not a replacement—and this pattern has played out before. Every productivity revolution in tech made some workers more valuable while making others obsolete. Historical precedent: Spreadsheets (1980s) didn't eliminate finance jobs—they eliminated calculators and ledgers, making skilled analysts 10x more valuable. Email (1990s) didn't eliminate communication jobs—it eliminated memo typists, making knowledge workers more connected. Google Search (2000s) didn't eliminate research jobs—it eliminated encyclopedia sellers, making researchers faster and more effective. AI's impact will be similar: It eliminates rote code generation and simple debugging (junior busywork), makes good engineers 5-10x more productive, increases demand for engineers who can design systems, validate AI output, and solve novel problems. The shift happening: Companies need fewer "code monkeys" but more "engineering architects." Entry bar is higher, but mid-career opportunities are expanding. Engineers who can use AI effectively will be far more valuable than those who ignore it. Why pursue SE in 2025: Top 20% of engineers will make more money than ever (productivity multipliers get paid more), demand for quality software isn't decreasing (AI just changes how it's built), engineering fundamentals still matter (AI can't design systems or understand business problems). Who should avoid SE: If you want "easy entry and coast" (those days are over), if you can't continuously learn (AI evolution requires adaptation), if you're only in it for money (passion and persistence now required). Bottom line: Pursue SE if you're genuinely interested, willing to be top 30%, and can leverage AI rather than compete against it. Don't pursue it because "everyone said tech was a safe career path"—that era ended.
Should I move from the US to Europe as a junior software engineer to find work more easily?
Potentially yes, but understand the tradeoffs before making this dramatic move. The case FOR moving to Europe: Easier entry (less competition, more reasonable interview bars), stable employment (less hire-and-fire culture than US), work-life balance (30-35 days vacation standard, less hustle culture), universal healthcare (one less thing to worry about), visa pathways (EU Blue Card more accessible than US H-1B for later career changes). The case AGAINST moving: Lower salaries (€45-65k entry-level Europe vs $90-120k US—even adjusted for CoL), language barriers (manageable in Amsterdam, Berlin, Dublin; harder in Paris, Madrid), cultural adjustment (different work styles, social dynamics), distance from family/network (significant life change), career progression (US still has higher ceiling long-term). Best European destinations for US juniors: Dublin (English-speaking, lots of US companies, €50-65k), Berlin (English-friendly, startup scene, €45-60k), Amsterdam (very English-friendly, €48-62k), Warsaw (growing scene, affordable, €35-55k), Zurich (harder to enter but €65-85k). Realistic scenario: Apply to US companies with European offices (Google Dublin, Amazon Berlin), work 2-3 years building experience, decide if you want to return to US with experience (easier to get higher-paying US role) or stay long-term in Europe. Don't move out of desperation—move because you're genuinely interested in Europe. The easier job market is real, but living internationally is a major life decision beyond just career. See our relocating to Europe guide for practical steps.
How quickly is AI actually going to eliminate software engineering jobs, and should I be panicking?
Short answer: Not quickly, and no. This panic happens with every major tech shift. Reality check: AI is currently eliminating/transforming specific tasks, not entire roles. What's happening in 2024-2025: Being automated: Boilerplate code generation, simple bug fixes, basic documentation, repetitive testing, straightforward feature implementations. Not being automated (and won't be soon): System architecture decisions, understanding ambiguous business requirements, debugging complex distributed systems, making engineering tradeoffs (speed vs quality vs cost), collaborating with non-technical stakeholders, maintaining legacy codebases, handling security and compliance. Timeline for actual job elimination: 2024-2026: Junior roles reduced 20-30%, but senior roles stable/growing, 2027-2030: Junior roles may reduce another 20-30%, mid-level starts requiring AI proficiency, 2030-2035: Engineering becomes more about orchestration and validation than writing, 2035+: Who knows—general AI might change everything (or might not arrive). Why you shouldn't panic: Every productivity tool increases total engineering output AND total engineering demand (more software gets built, creating more opportunities), we're nowhere near AI that can understand complex business problems, translate to code, and deploy reliably, AI makes good engineers MORE valuable (they can do more), companies still desperately need engineers (just different skills). What you should do instead of panicking: Learn to use AI tools expertly (be the engineer who's 10x with AI, not the one replaced by it), focus on skills AI can't do (system design, communication, business understanding), move up the abstraction ladder (from code monkey to system architect), build AI-enhanced applications (create solutions using AI, don't compete against it). Bottom line: The demand for "write code from specification" is declining. The demand for "solve complex problems with software" is growing. Position yourself in the second category.
What's the single best strategy for a US junior developer struggling to get their first job in 2025?
Geographic arbitrage + aggressive networking is the highest-leverage combination. Here's the systematic approach: Phase 1 (Months 1-2): Setup - Move to or confirm you're in a LCOL location where $70-90k goes far (Texas, Florida, remote-friendly states), expand target to "any reasonable offer" not just "top companies" ($70k in Austin beats $0 in SF), set up LinkedIn, Blind, and Reddit presence, prepare "learn in public" content calendar (weekly posts on progress). Phase 2 (Months 2-4): Network Building - Apply to 40-60 positions at companies with realistic bars (not just FAANG), identify 30-50 engineers at target companies on LinkedIn, send personalized connection requests (mention specific projects/posts), join company Slack/Discord communities, attend virtual meetups (2x/week), post weekly updates on learning journey (gains followers, demonstrates consistency). Phase 3 (Months 3-5): Referral Collection - Leverage new connections for referrals (15-30% conversion rate), do informational interviews (ask for advice, not jobs directly), help others in communities (answer questions, build reputation), follow up strategically (don't spam, but stay top-of-mind). Phase 4 (Ongoing): Skills Demonstration - Build 1-2 impressive projects (not todo apps), contribute to open source (shows collaboration), write about your learning (technical blog posts), practice LeetCode focused (100 mediums thoroughly > 300 problems rushed). Expected timeline: 3-6 months to first offer if you execute consistently. Why this works: Most juniors apply to 200+ jobs cold with 1% success rate (2 interviews max), you'll apply to fewer jobs but with 10-20% referral success rate (6-12 interviews), your content/networking creates inbound opportunities (people reach out to you), LCOL location means you can accept a $75k offer that's actually great for your situation. Alternative if this fails: Consider European opportunities (easier entry), try contracting/freelancing (build experience), work-adjacent roles (QA, DevOps, Support Engineering) then transition. The US junior market is brutal, but 3-6 months of focused execution on this strategy gives you solid odds.