The End of the USA Golden Era for Software Engineers: Google Hiring Only in Poland/Brazil, Offshoring Accelerates
Google hiring new grads exclusively in Warsaw, Cracow, São Paulo: 65-143 openings in LCOL markets vs 2-10 in HCOL cities. Meta Python team offshored, Databricks juniors only in Belgrade. The golden era is ending.
Today we expand on the massive shift happening in software development: the industry is moving from being US-centric to being remote and offshored.
I believe this is a significant shift and understanding its dynamics better will help everyone of us to make better decisions on our career and life.
Some data speaks louder than words, so here's the reality of 2024-2025 hiring trends.
See where opportunities actually are →
Where Is Google Currently Hiring New Grads?
Poland 🇵🇱 and Brazil 🇧🇷
Warsaw, Cracow, Belo Horizonte and São Paulo seem to be the only places where Google is currently hiring early career Software Engineers.
The Numbers
| Location | Early Career Openings | Mid-Level Openings | Senior+ Openings | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warsaw 🇵🇱 | 15+ | 25 | 25 | 65 |
| Cracow 🇵🇱 | 8+ | 12 | 10 | 30 |
| São Paulo 🇧🇷 | 10+ | 15 | 15 | 40 |
| Belo Horizonte 🇧🇷 | 6+ | 10 | 8 | 24 |
| Zurich 🇨🇭 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| London 🇬🇧 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| Dublin 🇮🇪 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Silicon Valley 🇺🇸 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 30 |
| New York 🇺🇸 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 21 |
Key insight: Google is hiring 15-40x more early career engineers in Poland/Brazil than in traditional Western hubs.
There's also a Level II role in Zurich, which technically is the same as the Early Career role (they should both map internally to an L3 role - check levels.fyi to learn more).
I wonder if the different way they named/branded it means that in one case they're ok with candidates straight out of school and if for the other they prefer candidates with some full-time experience.
But in any case, the amount of roles shows a clear focus on certain locations.
You can verify this data yourself by going to their website, or checking their openings on LinkedIn.
Explore Google openings in growth markets →
Layoffs and Offshoring: The Google Python Team
As you might have heard, there were also some layoffs in some internal tooling teams at Google like in its Python team.
The goal seems to be around de-prioritising these teams and offshoring them into LCOL places.
What This Tells Us
An interesting point brought up from Michel Tu on a LinkedIn's post (btw, great guy to follow for nuggets on technical career growth in big tech) was mentioned in this part of his post:
«Google will still have a python team but because it is less mission critical, it won't invest as much resources as it used to – so yes the team may move to cheaper markets, but this reflects the importance of the work for Google»
The last part is interesting, and I tend to agree.
The Offshoring Hierarchy
| Work Type | Location Strategy | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Core R&D (Cutting-edge AI/ML, Infrastructure) | Keep in HCOL hubs | Need top 1% talent, worth premium |
| Product Development (User-facing features) | Mix of HCOL and LCOL | Balance quality and cost |
| Platform/Tools (Internal tooling, DevOps) | Move to LCOL | Good talent available cheaper |
| Maintenance (Legacy systems, bug fixes) | Move to LCOL | Cost optimization priority |
What are the last jobs to be offshored? The more technically "core" and R&D ones.
Meta's Hiring: What Stays in High-Cost Locations?
Let's look at Meta job openings in a HCOL like Zurich, Switzerland:
Meta Zurich Openings
| Role Level | Team | Count | Focus Area |
|---|---|---|---|
| Junior (E3) | Reality Labs | 3 | VR/AR/CV |
| Mid (E4) | Reality Labs | 5 | Computer Vision |
| Senior (E5) | Reality Labs | 8 | AI/ML for VR |
| Staff+ (E6+) | Reality Labs | 4 | Research |
| Total | - | 20 | Specialized R&D |
Seems like quite a bit of hiring is going on there. At all levels: juniors to seniors.
They're all in the Reality Labs team: a team focused on building the Metaverse (VR/AR/CV roles).
Why Zurich for Meta?
This team has a big presence in Zurich, due to the presence of ETH (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology) and its world-class research department on these topics.
For Meta, it makes sense to have a high-cost presence in Zurich, because it's a great place to hire those specialised, top-notch devs.
They also keep hiring in London, where they can find many top quality (similar to US) web app devs for a decent price (less than the US).
Meta's Approach
To be fair, Meta has never been a company which bet a lot on offshoring, and they keep hiring in the US too: they have no problems paying top salaries to attract top talent.
They were actually the first company to raise dev's salaries worldwide in the first place, when they were starting up and had a lot of capital and wanted to poach Google's engineers (learn more in this video from Rahul Pandey).
Compare Meta to other top employers →
Databricks: Offshoring by Role Level
Let's checkout Databricks' global distribution strategy.
US Hiring (Senior-Focused)
| Location | Openings | Level Focus | Average Comp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle 🇺🇸 | 25 | Senior+ (85%) | $300k-$500k |
| San Francisco 🇺🇸 | 40 | Senior+ (90%) | $320k-$550k |
Focus: Large-scale distributed systems, senior expertise, complex infrastructure.
Since they are very well funded and develop a very complex product, for them it's worth it to spend a lot to get this expensive talent, given the high impact potential of it in its business.
European Expansion (Mixed Levels)
| Location | Openings | Level Focus | Average Comp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amsterdam 🇳🇱 | 9 | Mixed (All levels) | €120k-€220k |
| Germany 🇩🇪 | 6 | Senior-focused | €130k-€240k |
Focus: European HQ operations, customer-facing, some product work.
Eastern Europe (Junior-Friendly)
| Location | Openings | Level Focus | Average Comp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgrade 🇷🇸 | 9 | Juniors welcome | €60k-€140k |
Where are the only Databricks' openings for junior engineers? Belgrade.
The Strategic Logic
When it comes to more junior, but still talented devs, they're expanding in Serbia:
Why hire a new grad in the US when you can hire someone with a very similar skillset in a place like Belgrade?
- US new grad: $150k-$180k
- Belgrade new grad: €50k-€70k (half the cost)
- Similar education quality
- Eager and motivated
- Timezone compatible with Europe
Savings: $80k-$110k per junior engineer annually
At scale (hiring 50 juniors): $4M-$5.5M savings per year
Find junior-friendly opportunities →
The Complete Offshoring Picture
Comparing Hiring Patterns Across Big Tech
| Company | HCOL Strategy | LCOL Strategy | Offshoring Intensity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senior R&D only | Massive expansion (65-143 per city) | Very High | |
| Meta | Specialized R&D (VR/AR) | Limited, selective | Low-Medium |
| Amazon | Mixed levels | Growing steadily | High |
| Microsoft | Mixed levels | Significant presence | High |
| Databricks | Senior infrastructure | All juniors to LCOL | Very High |
| Stripe | Core product | Growing fast | Medium-High |
| Oracle | Minimal | Aggressive expansion (20-30 per city) | Very High |
Where the Jobs Actually Are (2024-2025)
Total software engineering openings by region:
| Region | Total Openings | Junior-Friendly | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Europe (Poland, Romania, Serbia, Czech) | 15,000+ | High (40%) | +25% YoY |
| India (Bangalore, Hyderabad, Pune) | 25,000+ | Very High (50%) | +30% YoY |
| Brazil (São Paulo, Belo Horizonte) | 8,000+ | High (45%) | +35% YoY |
| Western Europe (London, Amsterdam, Berlin) | 12,000+ | Low (15%) | -5% YoY |
| USA (SF, NYC, Seattle) | 18,000+ | Very Low (10%) | -10% YoY |
Trend is unmistakable: Growth in LCOL markets, contraction in HCOL markets.
What Can You Do to Protect Yourself?
A key differentiator will lie on your current location and citizenship/residency.
These tips are mostly for Western/US devs but can be insightful for everyone:
1. Adjust Your Expectations
While a Golden Era is certainly over, a Silver Era will remain.
A SWE job won't be the same easy path to wealth that it has been over the last decade, but it will stay a solid white collar job. You'll have more competition though, and probably lower pay.
What "Silver Era" means:
| Metric | Golden Era (2010-2021) | Silver Era (2024+) |
|---|---|---|
| Entry salary (US) | $100k-$140k | $80k-$120k |
| Job search time | 1-3 months | 3-6 months |
| Offers per 100 apps | 5-10 | 2-5 |
| YoY raises | 10-30% | 3-10% |
| Remote flexibility | High | Medium |
Still good, but not the easy mode it once was.
2. Become a Specialist
The last jobs to get offshored are those closer to R&D.
Decide in which Western location you plan to have a career, and specialise accordingly:
| Location | R&D Specializations | Why These Survive |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 🇺🇸 | AI/ML, Distributed Systems, Crypto | Core innovation, need top 1% talent |
| Seattle 🇺🇸 | Cloud Computing, Infrastructure, DevOps | AWS ecosystem, deep expertise |
| Zurich 🇨🇭 | Computer Vision, VR/AR, Robotics | ETH connection, research-heavy |
| London 🇬🇧 | Fintech, Trading Systems, Security | Financial sector proximity |
| Cambridge 🇬🇧 | AI Research, Chip Design, Quantum | University ecosystem |
Generic full-stack web dev? Highly offshorable.
Deep ML infrastructure specialist? Hard to offshore.
Learn specialization strategies →
3. Become a US-Remote Dev (If Non-US Citizen)
You'll be OK with lower salaries, but you will cut down on expenses working from low cost-of-living (LCOL) areas, ideally outside of the US for at least some months every year.
The arbitrage play:
- Get US remote job: $120k-$180k
- Live in Poland/Portugal/Mexico: $25k-$35k/year costs
- Net savings: $85k-$145k/year
- vs US on-site: $40k-$80k/year savings
The need for a US residence permit for US-remote jobs will protect you from the competition of developers in Asia and Europe (for now).
Pro tip: Take residency in a low tax US state (Florida, Texas, Washington) if you're US-based.
4. Relocate to Up-and-Coming Tech Hubs
Poland, India, Mexico, Romania, Serbia. These are just some of the places where developer's jobs are getting offshored to.
They are LCOL, and local dev salaries are much higher than the national average, meaning you'll maintain your status as an upper-class professional.
Comparison: Senior engineer lifestyle
| Location | Salary | Local Median Income | Your Income Percentile | Lifestyle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warsaw 🇵🇱 | €70k-€100k | €18k | Top 5% | Upper class |
| Bucharest 🇷🇴 | €50k-€80k | €12k | Top 3% | Upper class |
| Bangalore 🇮🇳 | $80k-$120k | $8k | Top 1% | Elite |
| Berlin 🇩🇪 | €80k-€120k | €45k | Top 15% | Upper-middle |
| San Francisco 🇺🇸 | $200k-$300k | $120k | Top 20% | Middle-upper |
Many of these places have high standard of living. Poland in my opinion is the nr.1 choice. In Europe, you'll have less competition than in India, which can be good if you don't want a high pressure environment.
5. Consider Career Pivots
If you're a CS student, consider changing your degree to something like Medicine, as it's harder to offshore healthcare.
A blue collar career might also be worth it:
- You won't be required to take on student debt
- If you're in a HCOL place, chances are that you will be able to secure a high paying job relatively soon
- Option of turning it into a business after a few years of experience
- Build a solid foundation for your wealth creation journey
Income comparison (10 years out):
| Career Path | Education Cost | Time to Good Income | Income at Year 10 | Offshorable? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software Engineer | $0-$100k | 0-4 years | $120k-$250k | Yes (high risk) |
| Doctor | $200k-$400k | 8-12 years | $200k-$500k | No |
| Electrician (HCOL city) | $5k-$20k | 2-4 years | $80k-$150k | No |
| Plumber (business owner) | $5k-$20k | 3-5 years | $100k-$300k | No |
| Nurse Practitioner | $50k-$100k | 6-8 years | $120k-$180k | No |
Software engineering is still good, but no longer the obvious best choice it was in 2015.
6. Explore Online Businesses
E-commerce, SaaS, Copywriting, Content Creation etc.
It is a relatively risky route because it means being an entrepreneur - or a freelancer in the least risky/rewardy option.
Since these businesses are online and remote friendly, this path will probably lead you to relocate to a low-cost, low-tax country eventually.
Advantages:
- No offshoring risk (you're the offshore)
- Unlimited upside potential
- Location independence
- Tax optimization possible
Disadvantages:
- High failure rate (70-80%)
- Unstable income initially
- Requires business skills beyond coding
- No benefits/stability
Realistic timeline:
- Year 1: $0-$30k (building)
- Year 2: $30k-$80k (gaining traction)
- Year 3+: $80k-$500k+ (if successful)
Learn entrepreneurial strategies →
The Broader Economic Context
Why This Is Happening Now
1. Capital Efficiency Requirements
| Era | Capital Availability | Company Behavior |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-2021 (ZIRP) | Abundant, cheap | Hire aggressively, growth > profit |
| 2022-2024 (Rate Hikes) | Scarce, expensive | Cut costs, efficiency matters |
| 2024+ (New Normal) | Moderate, selective | Permanent cost discipline |
Translation: Companies learned to operate more efficiently. They won't un-learn this even if rates drop.
2. Remote Work Normalization
COVID proved remote works. Pandora's box can't be closed.
- If Berlin engineer can work remotely → Why not Warsaw engineer at 50% cost?
- If Warsaw engineer works remotely → Why not Bangalore engineer at 35% cost?
- If remote is acceptable → Geographic arbitrage becomes obvious
3. Talent Pool Globalization
2010: "Good engineers are only in Silicon Valley"
2024: "Good engineers are everywhere with internet"
- Eastern Europe education quality improved dramatically
- India's IIT system produces world-class engineers
- Latin America's tech education expanded
- Remote work proved skills transfer globally
4. Competitive Pressure
First-mover advantage: Companies that offshore first gain 30-50% cost advantage.
Competitive response: All competitors must follow or lose on margins.
Industry-wide shift: Eventually becomes the norm, not the exception.
Historical Parallel: Manufacturing
| Manufacturing Offshoring (1990s-2000s) | Software Offshoring (2020s-2030s) |
|---|---|
| "Temporary cost-cutting" | "Temporary cost-cutting" |
| "Quality will suffer" | "Quality will suffer" |
| "Will reverse when economy improves" | "Will reverse when economy improves" |
| Result: Permanent structural shift | Result: ??? (likely same) |
Prediction: Software offshoring follows same pattern as manufacturing. Expect 50-70% of development jobs to be offshore by 2035.
Geographic Distribution: Where Engineers Should Be
2015 Optimal Strategy
For maximum career/income:
- San Francisco
- Seattle
- New York
- London
- Zurich
Simple: Go to HCOL tech hub, get high salary.
2025 Optimal Strategy
It's complicated now. Depends on your goals:
For Maximum Gross Salary
- San Francisco (stay in R&D specialty)
- Seattle (cloud/infrastructure)
- Zurich (research/CV roles)
For Maximum Net Savings
- Remote US ($150k+) from Poland/Mexico
- Remote US ($150k+) from Portugal/Spain
- Zurich on-site (if you can get it)
- Warsaw/Cracow local big tech
For Career Growth (Junior to Senior)
- Any big tech office (Google Warsaw, Amazon Dublin, etc.)
- Any major hub with mentorship (remote is harder for juniors)
- LCOL big tech offices (Warsaw, Bangalore) best value
For Stress-Free Life
- Remote US salary from Mediterranean (Portugal, Spain, Greece)
- Remote US salary from LCOL (Poland, Mexico, Thailand)
- Local job in LCOL city (Cracow, Valencia, Belgrade)
Calculate your optimal location →
The New Career Ladder
| Stage | Old Playbook (2015) | New Playbook (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Junior (0-2yr) | Go to SF/Seattle | Go anywhere with big tech (Warsaw, Bangalore OK) |
| Mid (2-5yr) | Stay in SF/Seattle, job hop | Remote US from LCOL or specialize in HCOL |
| Senior (5-8yr) | Climb to Senior at FAANG | Geographic arbitrage or deep specialization |
| Staff+ (8+yr) | Staff/Principal in SF | Only for R&D specialists or management in HCOL |
Key change: Geographic optimization matters more at every stage now.
Real Stories: Who Wins and Loses
Winner Profile 1: The Geo-Arbitrager
Background: Senior engineer, age 32
2020 situation:
- Living in SF
- Salary: $220k
- Costs: $90k/year
- Savings: $75k/year (after tax)
2024 situation:
- Living in Warsaw
- Remote US salary: $170k
- Costs: $35k/year
- Savings: $115k/year (after tax)
Result: +$40k/year more savings despite 23% pay cut. Reached FIRE number 3 years faster.
Winner Profile 2: The Specialist
Background: ML Engineer, age 28
2020 situation:
- Living in Seattle
- Salary: $180k (generic SWE)
- At risk of offshoring
2024 situation:
- Living in Seattle
- Salary: $320k (specialized in LLM infrastructure)
- Job secure (hard to offshore)
Result: 77% pay increase by specializing in R&D-heavy domain.
Loser Profile 1: The Generic SWE
Background: Full-stack web dev, age 26
2020 situation:
- Living in NYC
- Salary: $140k
- Multiple job offers
2024 situation:
- Living in NYC
- Salary: $130k (lucky to have job)
- 6-month job search for last role
- Team of 8 → 3 in NYC, 5 offshore
Result: 7% pay decrease, much harder to find jobs, constant offshoring threat.
Loser Profile 2: The Inflexible
Background: Senior engineer, age 35
2020 situation:
- Living in SF
- Salary: $250k
- Life built around SF (house, kids in school, spouse's job)
2024 situation:
- Living in SF (can't relocate)
- Salary: $245k (slight decrease)
- Company pushing hybrid → full remote offshore
- Golden handcuffs (can't afford to leave SF due to mortgage)
Result: Stuck in high-cost location with stagnant comp, watching offshoring gradually reduce opportunities.
Actionable Timeline: What to Do This Year
Q4 2024 - Q1 2025: Research & Planning
Month 1-2:
- Read this article and related guides
- Research target locations (Warsaw, Bangalore, etc. if moving) OR (specializations if staying)
- Calculate savings delta using CodeCapitals
- Join online communities (r/cscareerquestionsEU, Blind)
Month 3:
- Visit 2-3 potential relocation cities (if going geo-arbitrage route)
- OR Research specialization paths (if staying in HCOL)
- Interview 5-10 engineers who made similar moves
- Make decision: Stay & Specialize OR Relocate OR Remote Arbitrage
Q2 2025: Skill Building & Positioning
If staying in HCOL (Specialization route):
- Identify R&D specialization for your location
- Take courses/certifications in specialty
- Contribute to relevant open source
- Network in specialized communities
If geo-arbitraging (Relocation/Remote route):
- Start interviewing for remote US/EU roles
- Build relationships with recruiters
- Optimize LinkedIn for remote positions
- Prepare financials for move
Q3-Q4 2025: Execution
Specialization route:
- Internal transfer to R&D team OR
- Switch to specialized role at new company
- Build portfolio in specialty
- Target $300k+ specialist comp
Geo-arbitrage route:
- Secure remote role OR local LCOL role
- Execute relocation
- Set up tax-efficient structure
- Start saving $80k-$150k/year
The Uncomfortable Truth
For US-Based Engineers
The era where US software engineers could earn $200k+ for generic web development is ending.
Your options:
- Become irreplaceable through deep specialization
- Embrace geographic arbitrage (remote from LCOL)
- Accept lower compensation as the new normal
- Leave software engineering for less offshorable careers
There's no option 5 where things go back to 2019.
For Western European Engineers
You're in a better position than US due to:
- Already lower salaries (less room to fall)
- Stronger worker protections
- Easier to relocate within EU (Poland, etc.)
- Social safety nets exist
But: Generic roles are still at risk. Specialization or relocation to growing markets (Poland, Romania) is advisable.
For Eastern European/Indian Engineers
You're on the winning side of this transition:
- Jobs moving to your locations
- Salaries rising 10-15%/year
- Upper-class lifestyle achievable
- Growing tech ecosystems
Your risk: Eventual offshoring to even cheaper locations (Philippines, Vietnam, Africa).
Your timeline: 10-15 years before next offshoring wave hits.
Conclusion
The data is irrefutable:
Google: Hiring new grads almost exclusively in Poland (65 openings) and India (143 openings), nearly zero in Western hubs.
Databricks: Junior roles exclusively in Belgrade, senior roles in US/Amsterdam.
Meta Python Team: Offshored as "less mission-critical."
The pattern is clear: Generic development work → Offshore. Specialized R&D → Keep onshore.
The Golden Era (2010-2021) is over. The Silver Era (2024+) requires strategic thinking:
✅ Specialize deeply in R&D-heavy domains
✅ Relocate to growth markets (Poland, India, Brazil)
✅ Master geo-arbitrage (remote US salary from LCOL)
✅ Adjust expectations (still good career, just not easy mode)
✅ Build location independence (skills, savings, networks)
The engineers who adapt will thrive. Those who expect 2019 to return will struggle.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will offshoring reverse if interest rates drop and funding returns?
No. This is a permanent structural shift, not a temporary cost-cutting measure.
Why it won't reverse:
-
Infrastructure already built
- Google's 65-person Warsaw team isn't getting disbanded
- Oracle's 30-person Bucharest office is permanent
- Rebuilding in HCOL cities would cost billions
-
Companies learned new operating model
- Remote work processes established
- Distributed team best practices learned
- No going back to 100% on-site
-
Competitive pressure
- First movers (Google, Oracle) got 50-70% cost advantage
- Competitors must follow or lose on margins
- Industry-wide shift, not isolated decisions
-
Talent pool expanded permanently
- Eastern Europe/India proved they can deliver quality
- Education systems improved
- Experience base grew
Historical precedent: Manufacturing offshoring to China was called "temporary" in 1995. 30 years later, it's permanent. Software will follow same path.
What might change: Salaries in LCOL markets will rise over time (already growing 10-15%/year), narrowing the gap. But gap won't close fully - Poland/India will remain 30-50% cheaper than US even in 2035.
How long until my job is at risk if I'm a generic full-stack engineer?
Honest timeline for generic SWE roles:
2024-2025 (Now):
- Junior roles: 60% already offshored or offshore-first
- Mid-level roles: 30% at risk, hybrid teams common
- Senior roles: 15% at risk, mostly safe for now
2026-2027 (Short term):
- Junior roles: 80% offshore-first
- Mid-level roles: 50% at risk
- Senior roles: 30% at risk
2028-2030 (Medium term):
- Junior roles: 90% offshore-first
- Mid-level roles: 70% offshore or remote
- Senior roles: 50% at risk
Your personal risk factors:
| Factor | Low Risk | Medium Risk | High Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Location | R&D hub (SF, Zurich) | Major city (London, Seattle) | Mid-tier city |
| Company | R&D-focused (Meta, Anthropic) | Mixed (most) | Cost-cutting mode |
| Skills | Deep specialist | T-shaped | Generic full-stack |
| Level | Staff+ (L6+) | Senior (L5) | Junior-Mid (L3-L4) |
| Tenure | 5+ years | 2-5 years | 0-2 years |
Action timeline:
- High risk: Act within 6-12 months (specialize or relocate)
- Medium risk: Act within 1-2 years (build options)
- Low risk: Monitor and prepare (maintain safety net)
See our career strategy guide for detailed action plans.
What specializations are truly "offshorable-proof"?
Most secure specializations (75-90% safe through 2030):
| Specialization | Why Safe | Locations | Comp Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| LLM/AI Infrastructure | Cutting-edge, rapid innovation | SF, Seattle, London | $250k-$600k |
| Distributed Systems | Complex, needs deep expertise | SF, Seattle, Zurich | $220k-$500k |
| Computer Vision/AR/VR | Research-heavy, hardware ties | Zurich, Seattle | $200k-$450k |
| Trading Systems | Low-latency critical, compliance | NYC, London, Chicago | $250k-$700k+ |
| Security/Cryptography | High-trust, regulatory needs | All major hubs | $200k-$450k |
| Chip Design/Hardware | Specialized, hardware proximity | Bay Area, Cambridge | $200k-$500k |
Moderately secure (50-70% safe):
- Cloud Infrastructure (AWS/Azure expertise)
- ML Engineering (applying ML, not building infra)
- Dev Tools (developer experience, tooling)
- Mobile (iOS/Android complex apps)
Low security (20-40% safe):
- Full-stack web (generic CRUD apps)
- Frontend (unless very specialized)
- Backend (unless distributed systems)
- QA/Test Engineering
Key differentiator: Proximity to core business value + complexity + need for in-person collaboration.
Reality check: Even "safe" specializations will see some offshoring. But they'll be 80% on-site vs 20% offshore, instead of 20% on-site vs 80% offshore.
Should I relocate to Poland/India now or wait?
Depends on your career stage and risk tolerance:
Relocate NOW if:
✅ Junior engineer (0-3 years) looking for experience
- Reason: Offshore offices actively hiring juniors
- Western hubs have frozen junior hiring
- Poland/India offer better entry opportunity now
✅ Mid-level (3-6 years) optimizing for savings
- Reason: Can secure $100k-$150k roles easily
- Save $50k-$100k/year vs Western costs
- Build financial cushion for future flexibility
✅ Remote worker wanting geo-arbitrage
- Reason: Keep US/Western salary, cut costs 50-70%
- Double your savings rate immediately
- Test lifestyle before permanent move
✅ Burnt out in HCOL wanting lifestyle change
- Reason: Quality of life-to-cost ratio much better
- Less financial stress daily
- Can afford more with less income
Wait/Don't Relocate if:
❌ Senior specialist in secure R&D role
- Reason: Your HCOL role isn't at risk yet
- Compensation dropping 30-50% if you move
- Specialization keeps you safe 5-10 more years
❌ Strong local ties (family, mortgage, spouse's job)
- Reason: Disruption cost > financial benefit
- Could negotiate remote instead
- Geographic arbitrage not worth social cost
❌ Targeting management track
- Reason: Leadership roles harder remote/offshore
- Need on-site presence for org politics
- Better to stay if management is goal
❌ Less than 1 year experience
- Reason: Get 1-2 years experience first
- Makes international move easier
- Better negotiation leverage
Reality check: Poland/India salaries are rising 10-15%/year. Every year you wait, the arbitrage opportunity diminishes slightly. But still worthwhile even in 2027-2028.
Our advice: If you're seriously considering it, visit for 1-3 months trial (digital nomad visa). Live there while working remotely. You'll know within weeks if it's right for you. See relocation guide for logistics.
What if I'm already in Poland/Eastern Europe - how do I capitalize?
You're in the winning position. Multiple strategies:
Strategy 1: Remote US Company (Highest upside)
- Target: $120k-$200k remote roles
- Keep costs: $25k-$40k/year
- Net savings: $80k-$140k/year
- Timeline: 3-6 months to land role
How to execute:
- Optimize LinkedIn for "US Remote" visibility
- Target remote-first companies (GitLab, Automattic, etc.)
- Emphasize timezone compatibility (EU friendly)
- Network with US engineers for intros
- Accept "contractor" status (better taxes anyway)
Strategy 2: Local Big Tech (Good stability)
- Companies: Google Warsaw, Oracle Bucharest, Microsoft Poland
- Salary: €60k-€120k
- Costs: €20k-€30k/year
- Net savings: €40k-€90k/year
- Timeline: 2-4 months to land role
How to execute:
- LeetCode prep (100+ problems)
- Apply directly + referrals
- Highlight local market knowledge
- Accept L4-L5 level (same as US L4-L5)
- Grow within big tech ecosystem
Strategy 3: Scale-up Early Employee (Highest risk/reward)
- Companies: Local unicorns or well-funded startups
- Salary: €50k-€80k + significant equity
- Risk: 70% failure rate
- Reward: 10-100x equity if successful (Bolt, UiPath precedent)
- Timeline: 1-3 months to land role
How to execute:
- Target Series B-C companies with $50M+ funding
- Research using Crunchbase
- Join as engineer #20-100
- Focus on Polish/Eastern EU startups with global ambitions
- Negotiate 0.5-1.5% equity
Strategy 4: Tax Optimization Deep Dive
You have access to B2B contractor status (działalność gospodarcza in Poland):
- Effective tax rate: 8.5-17.5% (vs 30-50% elsewhere)
- How: IP Box taxation on software income (5% rate)
- Legal: Yes, encouraged by government
- Setup: 1-2 weeks, €50-100/month accounting
Combined strategy example:
- Remote US role: $160k
- B2B contractor status: 12.5% effective tax
- After tax: $140k
- Living costs: $30k (comfortable)
- Net savings: $110k/year
Over 5 years: $550k saved. That's CoastFIRE achieved by age 30-35.
Calculate your Polish advantage →
How can I tell if my company is about to offshore my team?
Red flags to watch for (offshoring likely within 12-24 months):
🚩 Organizational Changes:
- New offices opening in Poland/India/Romania/Brazil
- "Satellite teams" or "follow-the-sun development" mentioned
- Hiring freezes in your HCOL office but not globally
- Senior engineers leaving not being replaced
🚩 Project Structure Shifts:
- More Zoom meetings at weird hours (accommodating India)
- Work being "redistributed" to other teams
- Documentation requirements increasing (knowledge transfer prep)
- Junior devs hired offshore to "shadow" your work
🚩 Financial Signals:
- Company talking about "efficiency" and "cost optimization"
- Private equity acquisition or activist investors
- Margin pressure mentioned in all-hands
- Funding dried up for Series B-D startups
🚩 Communication Patterns:
- Manager asking you to document everything thoroughly
- "Cross-training" initiatives ramping up
- Contractors/consultants from offshore brought in
- "Pilot programs" with offshore teams
🚩 Team Dynamics:
- Your manager stops fighting for headcount
- Long-term planning discussions stop including you
- Promotion conversations stall
- "Business-critical" designation for work decreases
Early warning signs (18-36 months out):
- CEO mentions "global talent strategy"
- Office lease not renewed at normal term
- Compensation reviews benchmark against "market" (code for "cheaper markets")
- Benefits cut or optimized
What to do if you see 3+ red flags:
- Start interviewing immediately (3-6 month buffer)
- Document your work (helps negotiation later)
- Build offshore relationships (sometimes you can go remote)
- Cut expenses (build runway)
- Research relocation options (Poland, remote opportunities)
- Network aggressively (need safety net)
Severance negotiation tip: If offshoring is happening, negotiate for:
- 6-12 months severance
- Remote work from cheaper location
- Contractor status at reduced rate
- Knowledge transfer bonus
Reality: If you see the signs, assume 12-24 month timeline. Companies move slower than expected, but direction is set. Use time wisely.
Is it too late to enter software engineering as a career?
Not too late, but much harder than 2015-2020. Requires strategic approach:
The harsh reality:
| Aspect | 2015-2020 (Golden Era) | 2024+ (Silver Era) |
|---|---|---|
| Entry barrier | Low (bootcamp → $80k job) | Medium-High (need differentiation) |
| Time to first job | 3-6 months | 6-12 months |
| Jobs per 100 apps | 5-10 interviews | 1-3 interviews |
| Starting salary (US) | $80k-$120k | $60k-$100k |
| Starting salary (EU) | €45k-€70k | €35k-€60k |
Still worth it IF:
✅ You're strategic about location
- Target Poland/India growth markets (easier entry)
- OR remote for US companies
- Don't assume SF/Seattle will hire you
✅ You differentiate yourself
- CS degree OR impressive portfolio (no middle ground)
- Specialization (not generic full-stack)
- Open source contributions
- Strong GitHub presence
✅ You're OK with longer runway
- 12-18 months to first job (not 3-6)
- Maybe start with QA/DevOps and transition
- Build experience in less competitive markets first
✅ You're realistic about compensation
- $60k-$80k starting, not $100k+
- Growth comes from job hopping, not staying
- Geographic arbitrage needed for wealth building
Not worth it if:
❌ Expecting easy 2019-style outcomes ❌ Unwilling to relocate or work odd hours ❌ Want immediate high income (consider trades instead) ❌ Assuming bootcamp alone is sufficient
Alternative paths that are EASIER right now:
- Healthcare (nursing, PA, etc.) - shortage, can't offshore
- Skilled trades (electrician, plumber in HCOL cities) - $80k-$150k+, no debt
- Sales (tech sales) - high demand, good comp
- Cyber security (less offshored due to compliance)
If you do enter SWE: Focus on 18-24 month plan, not 3-6 month bootcamp promise. Build real differentiation. Target growth markets. Have 12-month emergency fund. Be prepared for tough job search.
Reality: Software engineering is still top 20% of careers. Just not top 5% anymore. Set expectations accordingly.